Posterior probability of an obstacle from a noisy proximity sensor
easynumerical
General
A mobile robot uses a binary proximity sensor to decide whether a grid cell ahead is occupied by an obstacle. From a map prior, the probability that any given cell contains an obstacle is . The sensor has a true-positive rate (sensitivity) of and a false-positive rate of , where denotes 'sensor reports detection'. Given a single detection, what is the posterior probability that the cell is actually occupied? Give your answer as a percentage.
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